‘They Are Close’ – Stefan Borson drops strong Nottingham Forest points deduction verdict

Nottingham Forest remains perilously close to breaching the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Regulations (PSR) for another season, according to finance expert Stefan Borson(Via Football Insider).

The club previously fell foul of PSR during the 2022-23 campaign, resulting in a four-point deduction. With clubs limited to losses of £105 million over a rolling three-year period, Forest narrowly avoided a repeat breach in 2023-24, thanks in part to last-minute player sales before the June 30 accounting deadline.

Key Financial Figures

• Revenue (2022-23): Club-record £155 million
• Wage Bill: £145 million

Borson highlighted the disproportionate wage expenditure relative to revenue as a primary reason for Forest’s ongoing struggles to stay within PSR limits.

“They have a very big wage bill relative to their revenue. It’s always going to be tight for them on PSR compliance,” said Borson.

2023-24 Breach Avoided Through Late Sales

Forest avoided penalties for 2023-24 after securing critical last-minute sales of players, including:

• Odysseas Vlachodimos to Newcastle for £20 million
• Orel Mangala and Moussa Niakhate

These moves, particularly the Vlachodimos transfer, raised eyebrows. Despite the goalkeeper’s limited playing time and age (30), his transfer brought in a significant profit that helped Forest stay within PSR limits.

“That somehow gave them a profit on a player that barely ever played for them,” Borson noted. “People can judge what was going on with that deal.”

2024-25 Concerns

The outlook for 2024-25 remains troubling for Forest. With such a tight margin in previous seasons, the club is expected to remain near the PSR threshold unless significant adjustments are made.

“If you were close for 2023-24, then you are almost certainly close for 2024-25,” Borson warned.

The club’s high wage-to-revenue ratio continues to be a critical factor, emphasizing the need for either increased revenue generation or reduced expenditure to ensure compliance moving forward.

Final Verdict

Forest’s financial balancing act leaves little room for error, with the club’s recent history of PSR issues serving as a stark reminder of the fine line they tread. While last-minute transfer decisions have staved off further sanctions for now, sustained improvement in financial strategy will be essential to avoid future points deductions or more severe penalties.

In other news, Alan Shearer identifies two Nottingham Forest players who were ‘turned inside out’ at Bournemouth